Valuation of Adaptability in Carbon Fibre Placement Systems

Proceedings of International Conference on Advanced Design Research and Education (ICADRE14)

Year: 2014
Editor: Edwin Koh, Victor Shim, Tan Woei Wan, Ian Gibson, Andi S. Putra
Author: Schrieverhoff , Phillip; Haupt , Sebastian; Goessl , Andreas; Saavedra, Cristina Carro; Lindemann , Udo
Institution: [1] Technical Universtity Munich (TUM), Germany, [2] MAG IAS GmbH, Germany
Section: Designing Complex Systems
Page(s): 027-031
DOI number: 10.3850/978-981-09-1348-9_044
ISBN: 978-981-09-1348-9

Abstract

The paper at hand builds up on the fundamentals developed within the field of Real Options Analysis (ROA) and presents the monetary assessment of two Architectures of a Carbon Fibre Placement System with different degrees of Adaptability. The analysis is based on the assessment of two decisive Key Parameters (KPs), that capture physical, functional, and other performance aspects that are of subjective value to one or several stakeholders. It pays tribute to the crucial influence of uncertainty both from the technological as well as from the market point of view by the use of Monte-Carlo Simulation and lays out the results as a Expexted Net Present Value (ENPV) distribution allowing for in depth interpretation including risk aspects.

Keywords: Designing Complex Systems